The fifth MED-GEM Pitstop meeting examined the implications of the current global energy crisis for the Mediterranean region and highlighted the need for a more integrated approach to energy security and transition. Held under the title From Crisis to Transition: Rethinking Energy in the Mediterranean, the meeting was based on a white paper prepared by the MED-GEM Network to assess the effects of the current geopolitical shock on energy and commodity systems across the wider region.

Structural vulnerabilities exposed

The discussion underlined that the current crisis is not only a short-term supply disruption. It also reveals deeper structural weaknesses in energy systems that remain highly dependent on distant supply routes, maritime chokepoints and concentrated production centres. In this context, participants stressed that the Mediterranean should increasingly be considered as an interconnected energy and industrial system, requiring more coordinated and long-term responses.

Particular attention was given to the Strait of Hormuz, identified during the meeting as the most critical energy transit chokepoint in the global system. Under normal conditions, it handles between 20% and 27% of global seaborne crude oil and petroleum products, as well as around 20% of global LNG trade. The disruption of flows through this corridor has once again demonstrated the extent to which both global and regional markets remain exposed to external shocks.

The analysis also highlighted that the nature of the disruption is especially significant. Tanker traffic was affected not only by physical insecurity, but also by the withdrawal of maritime war-risk insurance, which constrained operations even where infrastructure remained intact. While limited oil volumes could be redirected through bypass routes, LNG exports had far fewer alternatives. This resulted in immediate pressure on international markets, with oil prices rising above USD 100–120 per barrel and gas and LNG benchmark prices increasing by 30% to 50%.

Wider economic and industrial implications

The meeting stressed that the effects of the crisis extend beyond oil and gas markets. Disruptions to hydrocarbon processing have also affected strategic industrial by-products, with implications for a range of downstream sectors.

Helium, which is essential for semiconductor manufacturing, medical imaging and advanced electronics, has come under pressure following disruptions to LNG processing and exports. Sulphur, used in fertiliser production, metals processing and battery supply chains, has also been affected. These disruptions have contributed to additional pressure on fertiliser markets, with possible consequences for food prices and agricultural output. Aviation has likewise been impacted through higher jet fuel prices and tighter sustainable aviation fuel feedstocks.

The meeting therefore highlighted the increasingly systemic nature of energy shocks, which now affect industrial value chains, transport systems and broader economic stability.

Implications for the Mediterranean region

The discussion confirmed that both shores of the Mediterranean are concerned. The European Union and the Southern Mediterranean form a highly interconnected energy and commodity space, linked through shared maritime routes and trade dependencies. Under normal conditions, oil, LNG, fertilisers, sulphur and other strategic commodities transit from the Gulf through Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal into Mediterranean markets. When disruption occurs at the point of origin, the effects are transmitted across the wider basin.

For the European Union, relatively high gas storage levels and diversified supply routes helped delay immediate shortages. However, the crisis contributed to renewed price volatility, tighter LNG competition and additional cost pressures across agriculture, healthcare and transport. As noted during the meeting, resilience has improved since 2022, but exposure to global price shocks and distant chokepoints remains.

In the Southern Mediterranean, impacts are differentiated but significant. The white paper focused on MED-GEM partner countries experiencing secondary systemic effects, mainly through higher prices, trade disruptions and reduced availability of critical industrial inputs. Although country situations differ according to energy balances, fiscal space and infrastructure conditions, the discussion pointed to a common finding: short-term mitigation measures remain necessary, but are not sufficient without deeper structural reform.

Country perspectives

The country examples presented during the session illustrated the diversity of exposure across the region. Algeria, as a hydrocarbon exporter with pipeline gas to Europe and fertiliser exports, may experience positive overall effects through stronger exports, although within existing capacity constraints. Egypt faces a more mixed but overall negative situation, shaped by higher import costs and growing LNG dependence despite export capacity in fertilisers. Morocco remains particularly exposed through imported energy and sulphur-dependent fertiliser value chains, while Tunisia faces increased import costs, inflationary pressure and financing strain.

These differentiated situations reinforce the need for tailored national responses, while also confirming the value of a stronger regional framework for resilience and coordination.

From crisis response to long-term resilience

A key conclusion of the fifth MED-GEM Pitstop meeting was that energy security and energy transition can no longer be treated as separate agendas. They increasingly need to be designed and implemented together.

In this regard, the meeting highlighted several strategic directions: stronger energy efficiency measures, faster electrification, accelerated renewable energy deployment, improved interconnection infrastructure, and over time, the development of strategic reserves for cleaner molecules such as green ammonia and green hydrogen. These measures were discussed not only as part of the climate agenda, but also as essential components of resilience, competitiveness and reduced dependence on vulnerable external supply routes.

MED-GEM’s role in regional dialogue

Through this fifth Pitstop meeting, the MED-GEM Network reaffirmed its role as a platform for strategic regional dialogue on the future of energy systems in the Mediterranean. By linking crisis analysis with policy reflection, the meeting contributed to a broader discussion on how the region can strengthen its resilience while advancing the energy transition in a coherent and mutually reinforcing manner.

At a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, the meeting highlighted a clear message: the Mediterranean’s energy future will depend not only on its ability to respond to shocks, but also on its ability to redesign its systems in a more integrated, sustainable and resilient way.